Buy Euro now in advance of possible lower $ummer values?

01-01-2004, 04:03 PM

As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit by
converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to hit
1.50-1 by Summer 2004...

Tim K

01-01-2004, 04:16 PM

"Tim Kroesen" <> schreef in bericht
news:...
    > As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit by
    > converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to hit
    > 1.50-1 by Summer 2004...

Usually, when the popular media and self-proclaimed "experts" project
further appreciation / depreciation of the value of a certain currency in
terms of another currency, the turning point is near and exactly the
opposite will happen.
When the euro was worth only 82 US dollar cents these same "experts" were
predicting that the euro could go as low as 60 US cents.
For what it is worth (not much) I believe the "fair" exchange rate between
USD and EUR should be between 1 and 1.1 USD per euro.

Sjoerd

01-01-2004, 04:33 PM

On Thu, 1 Jan 2004 18:16:00 +0100, "Sjoerd"
<> wrote:

    >"Tim Kroesen" <> schreef in bericht
    >news:...
    >> As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit by
    >> converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to hit
    >> 1.50-1 by Summer 2004...
    >Usually, when the popular media and self-proclaimed "experts" project
    >further appreciation / depreciation of the value of a certain currency in
    >terms of another currency, the turning point is near and exactly the
    >opposite will happen.
    >When the euro was worth only 82 US dollar cents these same "experts" were
    >predicting that the euro could go as low as 60 US cents.
    >For what it is worth (not much) I believe the "fair" exchange rate between
    >USD and EUR should be between 1 and 1.1 USD per euro.

And FWIW the Big mac Index of The Economist magazine indicates
that the two currencies should be roughly at parity.

************* DAVE HATUNEN () *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

01-01-2004, 04:41 PM

I acknowledge it's speculation; but look at the historic data coupled
with virtually announced US economic policy of selling American goods
strong for a while...

You could be saving yourself as much as 20% devaluation. Have to factor
in advanced currency purchase prices too vs. the bank card method...

Tim K

"Hatunen" <> wrote in message
news:...
    > On Thu, 1 Jan 2004 18:16:00 +0100, "Sjoerd"
    > <> wrote:
    > >
    > >"Tim Kroesen" <> schreef in bericht
    > >news:...
    > >> As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit
by
    > >> converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to
hit
    > >> 1.50-1 by Summer 2004...
    > >
    > >Usually, when the popular media and self-proclaimed "experts" project
    > >further appreciation / depreciation of the value of a certain
currency in
    > >terms of another currency, the turning point is near and exactly the
    > >opposite will happen.
    > >When the euro was worth only 82 US dollar cents these same "experts"
were
    > >predicting that the euro could go as low as 60 US cents.
    > >For what it is worth (not much) I believe the "fair" exchange rate
between
    > >USD and EUR should be between 1 and 1.1 USD per euro.
    > And FWIW the Big mac Index of The Economist magazine indicates
    > that the two currencies should be roughly at parity.
    > ************* DAVE HATUNEN () *************
    > * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
    > * My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

01-01-2004, 05:05 PM

"Tim Kroesen" <> skrev i meddelandet
news:...
    > As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit by
    > converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to hit
    > 1.50-1 by Summer 2004...
    > Tim K
My congratulations. If you can predict the future so exactly you can easy
earn a fortune.
L.P

01-01-2004, 05:11 PM

On Thu, 1 Jan 2004 12:41:11 -0500, "Tim Kroesen"
<> wrote:

    >I acknowledge it's speculation; but look at the historic data coupled
    >with virtually announced US economic policy of selling American goods
    >strong for a while...
    >You could be saving yourself as much as 20% devaluation. Have to factor
    >in advanced currency purchase prices too vs. the bank card method...

And you could lose your shirt; that's why it's called
"speculation". If you think it's such a good idea I would suggest
your fortune is about to be made ...

We'll be in Europe for two months next summer and I certainly
hope the dollar doesn't fall much more, and, in fact, hope it
rises against the euro, but I'm nto about to buy up thousands of
euros.

************* DAVE HATUNEN () *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

01-01-2004, 05:15 PM

Perhaps hoping a problem won't happen is no hedge against it...

Do *you* personally believe the Euro will collapse in value against the
$ by this Summer...<g> I *sure hope so too*. (I think not as the
financial indicators indicate the opposite and historic data is on the
rise side...)

Tim K

"Hatunen" <> wrote in message
news:...
    > On Thu, 1 Jan 2004 12:41:11 -0500, "Tim Kroesen"
    > <> wrote:
    > >I acknowledge it's speculation; but look at the historic data coupled
    > >with virtually announced US economic policy of selling American goods
    > >strong for a while...
    > >
    > >You could be saving yourself as much as 20% devaluation. Have to
factor
    > >in advanced currency purchase prices too vs. the bank card method...
    > And you could lose your shirt; that's why it's called
    > "speculation". If you think it's such a good idea I would suggest
    > your fortune is about to be made ...
    > We'll be in Europe for two months next summer and I certainly
    > hope the dollar doesn't fall much more, and, in fact, hope it
    > rises against the euro, but I'm nto about to buy up thousands of
    > euros.
    > ************* DAVE HATUNEN () *************
    > * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
    > * My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

01-01-2004, 05:19 PM

I bet you wish you bought into Euro at .666 too...<g>

Shall we blame the current 1.25 and rising on the Devil...?

Tim K

"Lennart Petersen" <> wrote in message
news:5kZIb.40620$...
    > "Tim Kroesen" <> skrev i meddelandet
    > news:...
    > > As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit
by
    > > converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to hit
    > > 1.50-1 by Summer 2004...
    > > Tim K
    > >
    > My congratulations. If you can predict the future so exactly you can
easy
    > earn a fortune.
    > L.P

01-01-2004, 05:22 PM

On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 18:16:00 +0100, Sjoerd wrote:

    >
    > "Tim Kroesen" <> schreef in bericht
    > news:...
    >> As per subject. Anyone traveling in Spring or Summer might benefit by
    >> converting travel funds now; I've read the Euro was projected to hit
    >> 1.50-1 by Summer 2004...
    >
    > Usually, when the popular media and self-proclaimed "experts" project
    > further appreciation / depreciation of the value of a certain currency in
    > terms of another currency, the turning point is near and exactly the
    > opposite will happen.
    > When the euro was worth only 82 US dollar cents these same "experts" were
    > predicting that the euro could go as low as 60 US cents.

Well, it could have gone that low. That's roughly what the historical low
is. If, say, the last presidential election would have gone the other way
(just an issue of counting these Florida ballots...) so that 9/11 wouldn't
have happened and you would have a more fiscally responsible
administration, for instance.

    > For what it is worth (not much) I believe the "fair" exchange rate between
    > USD and EUR should be between 1 and 1.1 USD per euro.

I wouldn't dare to be so precise, and I would center at par. Anywhere
between 0.80 and 1.20 sounds reasonable.

What's most interesting though is that in the last twelve months, there
has been very little change in CAD/Euro rate.

01-01-2004, 06:18 PM

"Tim Kroesen" <> skrev i meddelandet
news:...
    > I bet you wish you bought into Euro at .666 too...<g>
    > Shall we blame the current 1.25 and rising on the Devil...?
    > Tim K
No I'm not gambling with the exchange rate and can't see any need for that
as there's a real possibility you'll end up as a looser.
As I'm not paid in US$ there haven't been much problems in the recent years
and there isn't for the moment. Anyway as fuel and airtravelling so much
is related to the US$ there's a good opportunity to travel now as long as
the low $ rate remains.
L.P